Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Sloane Stephens
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Sloane Stephens
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Sloane Stephens
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Sloane Stephens
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
1–0
Sloane Stephens
(1 last)
- 18 Aug2-0 14-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1569 · Sloane Stephens 1527
| Marta Kostyuk | Sloane Stephens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1569 vs 1527).
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 1–0 Sloane Stephens (1).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Sloane Stephens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.1 | 11.1-10.1 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 62.9% |
| Break % | 67% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.4
Over 19.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 40% · 1.83
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 1 – 0 Sloane Stephens (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 1–0 Sloane Stephens
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Madison Keys WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Katherine Sebov WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sloane Stephens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Clara Tauson US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Sinja Kraus WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Belinda Bencic WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Solana Sierra WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Harriet Dart WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Sloane Stephens?
Our model gives 72% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.