Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally
Team pages: Emma Navarro · Caty McNally
Prediction summary
Winner
Emma Navarro
Caty McNally
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Emma Navarro
2-8 (W-L)
Caty McNally
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Emma Navarro
2–2
Caty McNally
(4 last)
- 10 Jun1-2 10-16L
- 27 Aug2-0 12-3W
- 10 Mar2-1 13-8W
- 22 Oct0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emma Navarro 1508 · Caty McNally 1547
| Emma Navarro | Caty McNally | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Emma Navarro makes many double faults (5.9/match).
- Note: Caty McNally makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Emma Navarro | Caty McNally | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.7 | 11.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 1 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 59.8% |
| Break % | 32.3% | 53.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.6
Over 21.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Emma Navarro 2 – 2 Caty McNally (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emma Navarro 2–2 Caty McNally
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/26 WTA Hertogenbosch | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 27/08/25 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/03/23 WTA Indian Wells | 2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/10/20 ITF W80 Macon | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emma Navarro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Lois Boisson US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/07 | Sofia Kenin WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 04/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Oksana Selekhmeteva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Paula Badosa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Caty McNally
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Anouk Koevermans US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | McCartney Kessler WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Linda Noskova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Tatjana Maria WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 31/07 | Kristina Liutova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Yexin Ma WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Xiyu Wang WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally?
Our model gives 51% to Caty McNally, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.