Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Karolina Pliskova vs Diana Shnaider
Team pages: Karolina Pliskova · Diana Shnaider
Prediction summary
Winner
Karolina Pliskova
Diana Shnaider
Estimated games
20.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Karolina Pliskova
4-6 (W-L)
Diana Shnaider
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karolina Pliskova
0–1
Diana Shnaider
(1 last)
- 01 Jul1-2 15-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karolina Pliskova 1507 · Diana Shnaider 1589
| Karolina Pliskova | Diana Shnaider | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diana Shnaider (rating 1507 vs 1589).
- Head-to-head: Karolina Pliskova 0–1 Diana Shnaider (1).
- Note: Karolina Pliskova makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Karolina Pliskova | Diana Shnaider | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-11 | 11-8.4 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 59.7% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1.2
Over 21.5: 42% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 58% · 1.90
H2H · Karolina Pliskova 0 – 1 Diana Shnaider (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karolina Pliskova 0–1 Diana Shnaider
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/24 Wimbledon Women | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karolina Pliskova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Hanne Vandewinkel US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 14/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Iga Swiatek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Tereza Valentova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Caty McNally WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Sara Bejlek WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Diana Shnaider
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Daria Snigur US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Tatjana Maria WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karolina Pliskova vs Diana Shnaider?
Our model gives 67% to Diana Shnaider, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.