Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Mariano Navone
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Mariano Navone
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
5-5 (W-L)
Mariano Navone
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
3–1
Mariano Navone
(4 last)
- 03 Aug1-2 13-18L
- 30 Apr2-0 13-8W
- 07 Apr2-0 12-8W
- 06 Apr2-1 18-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1545 · Mariano Navone 1515
| Matteo Berrettini | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matteo Berrettini dominates on serve: 13.3 aces and 40.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini 3–1 Mariano Navone (4).
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-1.2 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 20.3-18.5 | 12.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 13.3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 81.1% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 31.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -12.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 3 – 1 Mariano Navone (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 3–1 Mariano Navone
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 30/04/26 Challenger Cagliari | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/04/25 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/04/24 ATP Marrakech | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 31-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Arthur Rinderknech French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
Mariano Navone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Novak Djokovic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-22 | W |
| 25/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone?
Our model gives 59% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.