Prediction: Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley
Team pages: Tomas Martin Etcheverry · Jacob Fearnley
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Jacob Fearnley
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
4-6 (W-L)
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1452 · Jacob Fearnley 1556
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1452 vs 1556).
- Jacob Fearnley is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.7 | 13.8-12.8 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -15
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Vit Kopriva US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 24/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Martin Landaluce US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-22 | W |
| 28/08 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley?
Our model gives 58% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.