Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 37.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
6-4 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1570 · Andrey Rublev 1540
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.7 | 15.2-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 77.1% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 37.5 · -13.4
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Marton Fucsovics US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 52% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.