Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 28.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1507 · Sebastian Gorzny 1499
| Daniil Medvedev | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 94% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 9.6 aces and 45.9% break avg.
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 45.6% break avg.
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6.1/match).
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.2-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-13.4 | 12.7-13.6 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 76.3% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 28.5 · -2.8
Over 28.5: 31% · 1.80
Under 28.5: 69% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Marc Polmans ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Borna Gojo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 21/07 | Borna Gojo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 75% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.