Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Kimberly Birrell vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: Kimberly Birrell · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
Kimberly Birrell
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kimberly Birrell
3-7 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kimberly Birrell
0–1
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(1 last)
- 15 Jun0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kimberly Birrell 1454 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1535
| Kimberly Birrell | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterina Alexandrova (rating 1454 vs 1535).
- Head-to-head: Kimberly Birrell 0–1 Ekaterina Alexandrova (1).
- Note: Kimberly Birrell makes many double faults (6.7/match).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Kimberly Birrell | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-11.5 | 13.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 56.9% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.3
Over 21.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Kimberly Birrell 0 – 1 Ekaterina Alexandrova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kimberly Birrell 0–1 Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/23 WTA Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kimberly Birrell
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Petra Marcinko US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Yexin Ma WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Sorana Cirstea Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alina Korneeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Petra Marcinko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Peyton Stearns WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | McCartney Kessler US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 06/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Lanlana Tararudee Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kimberly Birrell vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 68% to Ekaterina Alexandrova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.