Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Cristina Bucsa vs Himeno Sakatsume
Team pages: Cristina Bucsa · Himeno Sakatsume
Prediction summary
Winner
Cristina Bucsa
Himeno Sakatsume
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cristina Bucsa
5-5 (W-L)
Himeno Sakatsume
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cristina Bucsa 1480 · Himeno Sakatsume 1554
| Cristina Bucsa | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Himeno Sakatsume (rating 1480 vs 1554).
- Himeno Sakatsume is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Cristina Bucsa makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Cristina Bucsa | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-13 | 11.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61.5% | 61.8% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 49% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 51% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cristina Bucsa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Sara Bejlek US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Susan Bandecchi French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Shuai Zhang WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 07/05 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Himeno Sakatsume
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Anhelina Kalinina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08 | Mia Ristic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Tyra Caterina Grant US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Jazmin Ortenzi US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Fiona Crawley W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cristina Bucsa vs Himeno Sakatsume?
Our model gives 53% to Cristina Bucsa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.