Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Katie Boulter vs Karolina Muchova
Team pages: Katie Boulter · Karolina Muchova
Prediction summary
Winner
Katie Boulter
Karolina Muchova
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Katie Boulter
6-4 (W-L)
Karolina Muchova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Katie Boulter
0–1
Karolina Muchova
(1 last)
- 21 Mar0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katie Boulter 1468 · Karolina Muchova 1614
| Katie Boulter | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karolina Muchova (rating 1468 vs 1614).
- Karolina Muchova is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Katie Boulter 0–1 Karolina Muchova (1).
- Note: Katie Boulter makes many double faults (7.9/match).
Statistics
| Katie Boulter | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 40% (5) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.9-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-12.7 | 13.1-9.7 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 7.9 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 77.6% |
| Break % | 35% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3
Over 20.5: 70% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 30% · 1.90
H2H · Katie Boulter 0 – 1 Karolina Muchova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Katie Boulter 0–1 Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katie Boulter
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Carol Young Suh Lee US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Linda Noskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Katie Volynets WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Kayla Cross WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Elena Rybakina WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 12/06 | Jaqueline Adina Cristian WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Sinja Kraus US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 03/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Shuai Zhang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Zakharova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Clara Tauson WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katie Boulter vs Karolina Muchova?
Our model gives 75% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.