Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Polina Iatcenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Polina Iatcenko
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Polina Iatcenko
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1555 · Polina Iatcenko 1533
| Aryna Sabalenka | Polina Iatcenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 94% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Polina Iatcenko makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Polina Iatcenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-8.9 | 10.8-11.1 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 55.6% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +3.7
Over 17.5: 74% · 2.00
Under 17.5: 26% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Polina Iatcenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Renata Zarazua US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 27/08 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Lucia Bronzetti US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Julie Struplova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/08 | Claire Liu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Iryna Shymanovich W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Vera Zvonareva WTA Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko?
Our model gives 75% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.