Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
25.9Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
6-4 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Bublik
1–1
Adrian Mannarino
(2 last)
- 26 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 06 Jan2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1538 · Adrian Mannarino 1491
| Alexander Bublik | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Bublik (rating 1538 vs 1491).
- Alexander Bublik is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.2 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-14.7 | 12.2-12.5 |
| Aces | 16.9 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 32.6% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -12.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexander Bublik 1 – 1 Adrian Mannarino (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Bublik 1–1 Adrian Mannarino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/25 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/01/20 ATP Doha | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 02/07 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
| 26/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Learner Tien ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 66% to Alexander Bublik, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.