Tennis · M15 Bologna · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Lorenzo Beraldo
Team pages: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini · Lorenzo Beraldo
Prediction summary
Winner
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Lorenzo Beraldo
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Beraldo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1441 · Lorenzo Beraldo 1487
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Lorenzo Beraldo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Beraldo (rating 1441 vs 1487).
- Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (11.5/match).
Statistics
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Lorenzo Beraldo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-11.2 | 8.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 11.5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.1% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Gabriele Mellerio M25 Lesa |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Wels |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Filippo Catalano M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Petros Tsitsipas M15 Lodz |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 07/07 | Szymon Podczaszy M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 22/06 | Tobia Grandinetti M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
Lorenzo Beraldo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Pierluigi Basile M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Nicola Rispoli M25 Fano |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Federico Bove M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/07 | Laurens Harnoth Manrubia M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-8 | W |
| 22/07 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 Segrate |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Marc Majdandzic M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 8-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Pierluigi Basile M15 Gubbio |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/07 | Gilberto Ravasio M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Lorenzo Beraldo?
Our model gives 61% to Lorenzo Beraldo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.