Tennis · M25 Urayasu · 02/09, 03:00
Prediction: Yanki Erel vs Kousuke Ogura
Team pages: Yanki Erel · Kousuke Ogura
Prediction summary
Winner
Yanki Erel
Kousuke Ogura
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Yanki Erel
7-3 (W-L)
Kousuke Ogura
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanki Erel 1544 · Kousuke Ogura 1485
| Yanki Erel | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1544 vs 1485).
Statistics
| Yanki Erel | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-11.3 | 9-11.2 |
| Aces | 6 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 37.8% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Luca Castelnuovo M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Hikaru Shiraishi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Kokoro Isomura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/07 | Radu Albot Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Arda Azkara Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Omar Jasika M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Tomohiro Masabayashi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Hiroki Moriya M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Omar Jasika M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Duckhee Lee M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mikalai Haliak M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 9-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Yuta Kikuchi M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 22/07 | Taiki Takizawa M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Jeremy Beale M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanki Erel vs Kousuke Ogura?
Our model gives 74% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.