Tennis · US Open Women · 02/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Sofia Kenin
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Sofia Kenin
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Sofia Kenin
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
3–2
Sofia Kenin
(5 last)
- 06 Apr2-0 13-8W
- 29 Aug2-0 13-9W
- 05 Jun1-2 11-16L
- 03 Feb1-2 14-18L
- 15 Sept2-1 16-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1630 · Sofia Kenin 1472
| Jessica Pegula | Sofia Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1630 vs 1472).
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 3–2 Sofia Kenin (5).
- Note: Sofia Kenin makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Sofia Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10 | 10.7-13.1 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 55.5% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +4.8
Over 17.5: 80% · 1.72
Under 17.5: 20% · 2.00
H2H · Jessica Pegula 3 – 2 Sofia Kenin (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 3–2 Sofia Kenin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 WTA Charleston | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08/24 US Open Women | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/06/21 French Open Women | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/02/21 WTA Yarra Valley Classic | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 15/09/18 WTA Quebec City | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Sofia Kenin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Venus Williams US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 15/08 | Eva Lys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Emma Navarro WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Petra Marcinko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin?
Our model gives 82% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.