Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche
Team pages: Denis Shapovalov · Luca Van Assche
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Luca Van Assche
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Luca Van Assche
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Denis Shapovalov
1–0
Luca Van Assche
(1 last)
- 27 May3-0 18-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1561 · Luca Van Assche 1578
| Denis Shapovalov | Luca Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 40.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Denis Shapovalov 1–0 Luca Van Assche (1).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.9/match).
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Luca Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-11.4 | 13.5-11.6 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 6.9 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -15.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Denis Shapovalov 1 – 0 Luca Van Assche (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Denis Shapovalov 1–0 Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/24 French Open | 3-0 | 18-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Cameron Norrie US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/08 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/08 | Gustavo Heide ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche?
Our model gives 54% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.