Tennis · US Open Women · 02/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Team pages: Jasmine Paolini · Lucrezia Stefanini
Prediction summary
Winner
Jasmine Paolini
Lucrezia Stefanini
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jasmine Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Lucrezia Stefanini
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jasmine Paolini
1–0
Lucrezia Stefanini
(1 last)
- 28 Oct2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jasmine Paolini 1538 · Lucrezia Stefanini 1578
| Jasmine Paolini | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1538 vs 1578).
- Head-to-head: Jasmine Paolini 1–0 Lucrezia Stefanini (1).
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-11.8 | 11.1-8.9 |
| Aces | 1 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 55.4% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 62.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 48% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 52% · 1.90
H2H · Jasmine Paolini 1 – 0 Lucrezia Stefanini (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jasmine Paolini 1–0 Lucrezia Stefanini
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/21 WTA Courmayeur | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Veronika Erjavec US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Viktorija Golubic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Solana Sierra French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Dayana Yastremska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Elise Mertens WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Lucrezia Stefanini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Dayana Yastremska US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/08 | Julieta Pareja US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Madison Brengle US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Ayla Aksu US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Lucrezia Stefanini?
Our model gives 56% to Jasmine Paolini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.