Prediction: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Otto Virtanen · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Otto Virtanen
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 34.5
Recent form · 10 last
Otto Virtanen
5-5 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Otto Virtanen 1523 · Andrey Rublev 1558
| Otto Virtanen | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Otto Virtanen dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Note: Otto Virtanen makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Otto Virtanen | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.4 | 14.7-12.2 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 34.5 · -10.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Otto Virtanen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Ugo Blanchet US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Coleman Wong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/08 | Vignesh Gogineni ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Filippo Romano Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/07 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 69% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.