Prediction: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Juan Manuel Cerundolo · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
4-6 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1511 · Arthur Gea 1597
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1511 vs 1597).
- Arthur Gea is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.3 | 13.1-10.3 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 29.5% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -15.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 14/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Casper Ruud ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Sumit Nagal US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Soonwoo Kwon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 59% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.