Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Maria Sakkari vs Robin Montgomery
Team pages: Maria Sakkari · Robin Montgomery
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sakkari
Robin Montgomery
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sakkari
7-3 (W-L)
Robin Montgomery
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sakkari 1547 · Robin Montgomery 1572
| Maria Sakkari | Robin Montgomery | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Maria Sakkari | Robin Montgomery | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9 | 12.7-8.7 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 55.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.6
Over 22.5: 39% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sakkari
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Alina Korneeva WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Alycia Parks WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Harriet Dart WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Robin Montgomery
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Carson Branstine US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Jeline Vandromme US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Kayla Cross US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/08 | Lilli Tagger WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Julia Grabher WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Marina Bassols Ribera Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Elvina Kalieva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Caroline Dolehide Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sakkari vs Robin Montgomery?
Our model gives 50% to Maria Sakkari, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.