Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Anhelina Kalinina vs Himeno Sakatsume
Team pages: Anhelina Kalinina · Himeno Sakatsume
Prediction summary
Winner
Anhelina Kalinina
Himeno Sakatsume
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Anhelina Kalinina
5-5 (W-L)
Himeno Sakatsume
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anhelina Kalinina 1479 · Himeno Sakatsume 1526
| Anhelina Kalinina | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Himeno Sakatsume (rating 1479 vs 1526).
- Note: Anhelina Kalinina makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Anhelina Kalinina | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.8 | 11.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 59.7% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.9
Over 21.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anhelina Kalinina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Maria Lourdes Carle WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Kamilla Rakhimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 24/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Himeno Sakatsume
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Mia Ristic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Tyra Caterina Grant US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Jazmin Ortenzi US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Fiona Crawley W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Fiona Crawley Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anhelina Kalinina vs Himeno Sakatsume?
Our model gives 60% to Anhelina Kalinina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.