Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Arantxa Rus vs Leolia Jeanjean
Team pages: Arantxa Rus · Leolia Jeanjean
Prediction summary
Winner
Arantxa Rus
Leolia Jeanjean
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arantxa Rus
4-6 (W-L)
Leolia Jeanjean
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arantxa Rus 1537 · Leolia Jeanjean 1482
| Arantxa Rus | Leolia Jeanjean | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arantxa Rus (rating 1537 vs 1482).
- Note: Leolia Jeanjean makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Arantxa Rus | Leolia Jeanjean | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (3) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.1 | 11.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 62.2% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.5
Over 21.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 40% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arantxa Rus
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Susan Bandecchi US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Suzan Lamens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Teodora Kostovic US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Britt Du Pree W35 Vigo |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Anna Kubareva W35 Vigo |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Oceane Dodin W75 Ourense |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 31/07 | Dominika Salkova W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Isabella Maria Serban W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Leolia Jeanjean
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 13/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Lin Zhu WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Alice Tubello WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Amandine Monnot WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Daria Snigur Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arantxa Rus vs Leolia Jeanjean?
Our model gives 52% to Leolia Jeanjean, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.