Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Gabriela Knutson vs Eva Lys
Team pages: Gabriela Knutson · Eva Lys
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriela Knutson
Eva Lys
Estimated games
20.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriela Knutson
8-2 (W-L)
Eva Lys
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gabriela Knutson
0–1
Eva Lys
(1 last)
- 20 Aug0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriela Knutson 1600 · Eva Lys 1438
| Gabriela Knutson | Eva Lys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriela Knutson (rating 1600 vs 1438).
- Gabriela Knutson is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Gabriela Knutson 0–1 Eva Lys (1).
- Note: Gabriela Knutson makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Eva Lys makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Gabriela Knutson | Eva Lys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-8.1 | 9.5-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 52% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1
Over 21.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 57% · 1.83
H2H · Gabriela Knutson 0 – 1 Eva Lys (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gabriela Knutson 0–1 Eva Lys
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/24 US Open Women | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriela Knutson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Dominika Salkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Varvara Lepchenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/08 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Ella Seidel WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Sofia Costoulas WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Shuai Zhang WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Eva Lys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 12/08 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Sorana Cirstea French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Petra Marcinko French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/05 | Talia Gibson WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriela Knutson vs Eva Lys?
Our model gives 52% to Gabriela Knutson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.