Prediction: Coleman Wong vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Coleman Wong · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Coleman Wong
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
24.7Bet365 line 32.5
Recent form · 10 last
Coleman Wong
7-3 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coleman Wong 1582 · Tommy Paul 1528
| Coleman Wong | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coleman Wong (rating 1582 vs 1528).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 49.4% break avg.
- Note: Coleman Wong makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Coleman Wong | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.5 | 14.8-13.2 |
| Aces | 10 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 31.4% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7 · Bet365 line 32.5 · -7.8
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coleman Wong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Dusan Lajovic US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Elmer Moller US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Otto Virtanen ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coleman Wong vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 65% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.