Prediction: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac
Team pages: Toby Samuel · Tomas Machac
Prediction summary
Winner
Toby Samuel
Tomas Machac
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Toby Samuel
7-3 (W-L)
Tomas Machac
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toby Samuel 1589 · Tomas Machac 1464
| Toby Samuel | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toby Samuel (rating 1589 vs 1464).
- Toby Samuel dominates on serve: 6 aces and 42.2% break avg.
- Toby Samuel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Toby Samuel makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Toby Samuel | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-9.4 | 11.5-13.9 |
| Aces | 6 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -17
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Billy Harris US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Francesco Maestrelli US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Zizou Bergs French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/04 | Cameron Norrie ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 22/04 | Francisco Comesana ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Andrey Rublev ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Sebastian Baez ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/04 | Jannik Sinner ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac?
Our model gives 59% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.