Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Federico Cina
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Federico Cina
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 37.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Federico Cina
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1565 · Federico Cina 1520
| Alex Michelsen | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1565 vs 1520).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 48% break avg.
- Federico Cina dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Note: Federico Cina makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.8 | 13.8-12.1 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 48% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 37.5 · -13.5
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Federico Cina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 27/08 | Hugo Dellien US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Elias Ymer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 19/07 | Lorenzo Giustino ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Daniel Michalski ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Calvin Hemery ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina?
Our model gives 67% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.