Prediction: Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Aleksandar Vukic · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Vukic
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Vukic
8-2 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aleksandar Vukic
1–0
Rei Sakamoto
(1 last)
- 23 Sept2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Vukic 1539 · Rei Sakamoto 1552
| Aleksandar Vukic | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 9.7 aces and 40.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aleksandar Vukic 1–0 Rei Sakamoto (1).
Statistics
| Aleksandar Vukic | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.1 | 13.7-11.5 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 9.7 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 34.3% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -16.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Aleksandar Vukic 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aleksandar Vukic 1–0 Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/25 ATP Tokyo | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Tomas Barrios Vera ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 27/07 | Zachary Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Bolt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 25/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 07/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 56% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.