Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 29.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
1–0
Hugo Gaston
(1 last)
- 05 Nov2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1507 · Hugo Gaston 1534
| Daniil Medvedev | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 1–0 Hugo Gaston (1).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-13.1 | 11.8-9.6 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 6 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 29.5 · -6
Over 29.5: 15% · 1.83
Under 29.5: 85% · 1.83
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 1 – 0 Hugo Gaston (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 1–0 Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/21 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 70% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.