Prediction: Jakub Mensik vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Jakub Mensik · Shintaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Jakub Mensik
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 31.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jakub Mensik
7-3 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jakub Mensik
0–1
Shintaro Mochizuki
(1 last)
- 27 Apr1-2 14-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jakub Mensik 1553 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1480
| Jakub Mensik | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jakub Mensik (rating 1553 vs 1480).
- Head-to-head: Jakub Mensik 0–1 Shintaro Mochizuki (1).
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Jakub Mensik | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-13.5 | 9.9-12.1 |
| Aces | 12.1 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 69% |
| Break % | 31.4% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 31.5 · -7.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Jakub Mensik 0 – 1 Shintaro Mochizuki (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jakub Mensik 0–1 Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/23 Challenger Ostrava | 1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 12/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 30/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-24 | L |
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jakub Mensik vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 75% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.