Tennis · US Open Women · 30/08, 19:00
Prediction: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska
Team pages: Lucrezia Stefanini · Dayana Yastremska
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucrezia Stefanini
Dayana Yastremska
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucrezia Stefanini
7-3 (W-L)
Dayana Yastremska
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucrezia Stefanini 1572 · Dayana Yastremska 1471
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Dayana Yastremska | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1572 vs 1471).
- Lucrezia Stefanini is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Dayana Yastremska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-8.3 | 11.1-12.3 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 56.9% | 60.6% |
| Break % | 61.9% | 46.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.7
Over 22.5: 38% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 62% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucrezia Stefanini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Julieta Pareja US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Madison Brengle US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Ayla Aksu US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Dayana Yastremska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Tatjana Maria WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Aoi Ito Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 17/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 09/06 | Sara Bejlek WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/05 | Jasmine Paolini French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/05 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska?
Our model gives 53% to Lucrezia Stefanini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.