Tennis · US Open Women · 30/08, 17:00
Prediction: Renata Zarazua vs Polina Iatcenko
Team pages: Renata Zarazua · Polina Iatcenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Renata Zarazua
Polina Iatcenko
Estimated games
20.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Renata Zarazua
6-4 (W-L)
Polina Iatcenko
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Renata Zarazua 1496 · Polina Iatcenko 1509
| Renata Zarazua | Polina Iatcenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Polina Iatcenko makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Renata Zarazua | Polina Iatcenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-9.7 | 10.4-10.3 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -2.1
Over 22.5: 36% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 64% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Renata Zarazua
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 11/08 | Yue Yuan WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 01/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/07 | McCartney Kessler WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Yuki Naito W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
Polina Iatcenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Lucia Bronzetti US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Julie Struplova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/08 | Claire Liu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Caroline Dolehide W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Iryna Shymanovich W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Vera Zvonareva WTA Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Zhuoxuan Bai Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Renata Zarazua vs Polina Iatcenko?
Our model gives 52% to Polina Iatcenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.