Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 28.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
5-5 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1573 · Alex De Minaur 1556
| Andrea Guerrieri | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Alex De Minaur makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.8 | 13.6-13 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 33.8% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 28.5 · -5.1
Over 28.5: 18% · 1.80
Under 28.5: 82% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | August Holmgren US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 07/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Olle Wallin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 72% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.