Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin
Team pages: Grigor Dimitrov · Alexei Popyrin
Prediction summary
Winner
Grigor Dimitrov
Alexei Popyrin
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Grigor Dimitrov
7-3 (W-L)
Alexei Popyrin
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Grigor Dimitrov
2–1
Alexei Popyrin
(3 last)
- 08 Oct2-0 13-8W
- 10 Aug1-2 15-17L
- 05 Feb2-1 18-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grigor Dimitrov 1539 · Alexei Popyrin 1483
| Grigor Dimitrov | Alexei Popyrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grigor Dimitrov (rating 1539 vs 1483).
- Grigor Dimitrov dominates on serve: 10.3 aces and 43.1% break avg.
- Grigor Dimitrov is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Grigor Dimitrov 2–1 Alexei Popyrin (3).
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Grigor Dimitrov | Alexei Popyrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.3 | 0.9-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.1-15 | 11.4-13.8 |
| Aces | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 27.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -14.8
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Grigor Dimitrov 2 – 1 Alexei Popyrin (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grigor Dimitrov 2–1 Alexei Popyrin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/08/24 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 05/02/21 ATP Murray River Open | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Lorenzo Giustino US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 02/07 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-20 | W |
| 30/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Alexei Popyrin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin?
Our model gives 60% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.