Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth
Team pages: Matteo Arnaldi · James Duckworth
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Arnaldi
James Duckworth
Estimated games
26.9Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Arnaldi
6-4 (W-L)
James Duckworth
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Arnaldi 1500 · James Duckworth 1561
| Matteo Arnaldi | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours James Duckworth (rating 1500 vs 1561).
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 49% break avg.
- Note: Matteo Arnaldi makes many double faults (4.4/match).
- Note: James Duckworth makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Arnaldi | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.6 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-16.8 | 13.1-11.1 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 49% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.9 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -13.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Arnaldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
James Duckworth
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Aidan Mayo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth?
Our model gives 51% to James Duckworth, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.