Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas · Arthur Fils
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Arthur Fils
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 34.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Fils
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0–4
Arthur Fils
(4 last)
- 23 Mar0-2 1-12L
- 11 May1-2 12-14L
- 25 Oct0-2 9-13L
- 21 Oct0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1508 · Arthur Fils 1654
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Fils (rating 1508 vs 1654).
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 48.8% break avg.
- Arthur Fils is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 0–4 Arthur Fils (4).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.8 | 12.9-8.3 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.8% | 78.2% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 34.5 · -12.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 0 – 4 Arthur Fils (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 0–4 Arthur Fils
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 11/05/25 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/10/24 ATP Basel | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/10/23 ATP Antwerp | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 75% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.