Prediction: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Miomir Kecmanovic · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Miomir Kecmanovic
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Miomir Kecmanovic
7-3 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Miomir Kecmanovic
0–6
Denis Shapovalov
(6 last)
- 06 Feb1-2 13-18L
- 01 Aug1-2 12-16L
- 28 Feb1-2 12-19L
- 01 Oct0-2 8-12L
- 22 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 24 Apr1-2 17-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miomir Kecmanovic 1480 · Denis Shapovalov 1540
| Miomir Kecmanovic | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1480 vs 1540).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Miomir Kecmanovic 0–6 Denis Shapovalov (6).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Miomir Kecmanovic | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.4 | 12.8-11.8 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 72% |
| Break % | 34.8% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -16.4
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Miomir Kecmanovic 0 – 6 Denis Shapovalov (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Miomir Kecmanovic 0–6 Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/25 ATP Dallas | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/08/24 ATP Washington | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 28/02/23 ATP Acapulco | 1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 01/10/19 ATP Tokyo | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08/19 ATP Winston-Salem | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/04/16 ITF USA F14 | 1-2 | 17-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miomir Kecmanovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 13/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 21-28 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 55% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.