Prediction: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic
Team pages: Mariano Navone · Novak Djokovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariano Navone
Novak Djokovic
Estimated games
27.2Bet365 line 31.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mariano Navone
4-6 (W-L)
Novak Djokovic
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariano Navone 1500 · Novak Djokovic 1557
| Mariano Navone | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Novak Djokovic (rating 1500 vs 1557).
Statistics
| Mariano Navone | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 2.4-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.3 | 21.2-18.7 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 28.2% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.2 · Bet365 line 31.5 · -4.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariano Navone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Novak Djokovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Yibing Wu Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 29/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 27/05 | Valentin Royer French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 24/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic?
Our model gives 72% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.