Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Stan Wawrinka
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Stan Wawrinka
Estimated games
29.4Bet365 line 41.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
4-6 (W-L)
Stan Wawrinka
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
1–1
Stan Wawrinka
(2 last)
- 30 Jun3-1 27-25W
- 08 Dec1-2 20-25L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1556 · Stan Wawrinka 1434
| Matteo Berrettini | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Berrettini (rating 1556 vs 1434).
- Matteo Berrettini is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (4) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-1.3 | 0.8-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 20.8-18.8 | 13.6-15.9 |
| Aces | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 81% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 24.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.4 · Bet365 line 41.5 · -12.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 1 – 1 Stan Wawrinka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 1–1 Stan Wawrinka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 08/12/22 Diriyah Tennis Cup | 1-2 | 20-25 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 31-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Arthur Rinderknech French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Marton Fucsovics French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-15 | W |
Stan Wawrinka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 07/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Corentin Moutet Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-21 | L |
| 20/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Raul Brancaccio ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka?
Our model gives 69% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.