Prediction: Martin Damm vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Martin Damm · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
5-5 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Martin Damm
0–1
Frances Tiafoe
(1 last)
- 27 Aug1-3 21-26L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1518 · Frances Tiafoe 1596
| Martin Damm | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1518 vs 1596).
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 9.5 aces and 40% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 51.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Martin Damm 0–1 Frances Tiafoe (1).
- Note: Martin Damm makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.9-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12 | 15.6-13 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 40% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -12
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Martin Damm 0 – 1 Frances Tiafoe (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Martin Damm 0–1 Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/25 US Open | 1-3 | 21-26 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/07 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 69% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.