Prediction: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon
Team pages: Sebastian Gorzny · Raphael Collignon
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Gorzny
Raphael Collignon
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 33.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Gorzny
5-5 (W-L)
Raphael Collignon
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Gorzny 1479 · Raphael Collignon 1462
| Sebastian Gorzny | Raphael Collignon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 46.2% break avg.
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.9/match).
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Gorzny | Raphael Collignon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.7 | 12.5-15.3 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 31.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 33.5 · -8.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Marc Polmans ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Borna Gojo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 21/07 | Borna Gojo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Gavin Young Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Raphael Collignon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon?
Our model gives 69% to Raphael Collignon, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.