Prediction: Juncheng Shang vs Marco Trungelliti
Team pages: Juncheng Shang · Marco Trungelliti
Prediction summary
Winner
Juncheng Shang
Marco Trungelliti
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 36.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juncheng Shang
5-5 (W-L)
Marco Trungelliti
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juncheng Shang 1446 · Marco Trungelliti 1510
| Juncheng Shang | Marco Trungelliti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marco Trungelliti (rating 1446 vs 1510).
- Note: Marco Trungelliti makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Juncheng Shang | Marco Trungelliti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-14 | 13.8-13.1 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 26.9% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 36.5 · -12.2
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 02/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Doha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/01 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Australian Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 19/01 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Australian Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 09/01 | Alexander Bublik ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Marco Trungelliti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Kei Nishikori ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 12/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juncheng Shang vs Marco Trungelliti?
Our model gives 56% to Juncheng Shang, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.