Prediction: Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Jiri Lehecka · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Jiri Lehecka
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jiri Lehecka
7-3 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jiri Lehecka
1–1
Pablo Carreno Busta
(2 last)
- 25 May0-3 12-19L
- 25 Feb2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jiri Lehecka 1534 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1480
| Jiri Lehecka | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jiri Lehecka (rating 1534 vs 1480).
Statistics
| Jiri Lehecka | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.1 | 1.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.1-13 | 14.5-14.4 |
| Aces | 10.2 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 35.9% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -12.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Jiri Lehecka 1 – 1 Pablo Carreno Busta (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiri Lehecka 1–1 Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 French Open | 0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 25/02/26 ATP Dubai | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jiri Lehecka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/08 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Vit Kopriva ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-23 | L |
| 04/07 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex Molcan Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexei Popyrin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 67% to Jiri Lehecka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.