Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Marton Fucsovics
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Marton Fucsovics
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 33.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
6-4 (W-L)
Marton Fucsovics
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Merida Aguilar
0–1
Marton Fucsovics
(1 last)
- 30 Apr0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1566 · Marton Fucsovics 1419
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Marton Fucsovics | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1566 vs 1419).
- Daniel Merida Aguilar is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Marton Fucsovics (1).
- Note: Marton Fucsovics makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Marton Fucsovics | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 0.7-2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.8 | 11.2-15.9 |
| Aces | 3 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 49.2% | 18.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 33.5 · -10.2
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 1 Marton Fucsovics (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Marton Fucsovics
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/22 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Marton Fucsovics
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 01/07 | Learner Tien Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 16/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Matteo Berrettini French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 15-25 | L |
| 07/05 | Dino Prizmic ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 05/04 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics?
Our model gives 78% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.