Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 36.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
6-4 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
1–0
Sebastian Baez
(1 last)
- 01 Jul3-0 18-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1610 · Sebastian Baez 1556
| Brandon Nakashima | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1610 vs 1556).
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 1–0 Sebastian Baez (1).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-12.1 | 10.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 11.6 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 31% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 36.5 · -13.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 1 – 0 Sebastian Baez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 1–0 Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/24 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 69% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.