Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Jan-Lennard Struff
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Jan-Lennard Struff
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Jan-Lennard Struff
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1490 · Jan-Lennard Struff 1497
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 13.7 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.4-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.5 | 15-17.5 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 13.7 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 36.2% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -13.5
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 04/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard Struff?
Our model gives 60% to Jan-Lennard Struff, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.