Prediction: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rinky Hijikata
Team pages: Felix Auger Aliassime · Rinky Hijikata
Prediction summary
Winner
Felix Auger Aliassime
Rinky Hijikata
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 35.5
Recent form · 10 last
Felix Auger Aliassime
6-4 (W-L)
Rinky Hijikata
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Felix Auger Aliassime 1568 · Rinky Hijikata 1502
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Rinky Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Felix Auger Aliassime (rating 1568 vs 1502).
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 16 aces and 58.1% break avg.
- Felix Auger Aliassime is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Rinky Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.4-14.4 | 11.5-13.9 |
| Aces | 16 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 82.3% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 58.1% | 27.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 35.5 · -9.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Learner Tien ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
Rinky Hijikata
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 24/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/08 | Jaume Munar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/06 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-27 | L |
| 19/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rinky Hijikata?
Our model gives 72% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.