Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
27.1Bet365 line 31.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
9-1 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
6–0
Lorenzo Sonego
(6 last)
- 26 Sept2-0 12-7W
- 19 Jun2-1 16-16W
- 19 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 30 Dec2-1 18-14W
- 02 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 14 Apr2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1550 · Lorenzo Sonego 1500
| Alexander Zverev | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1550 vs 1500).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 12.8 aces and 44.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 6–0 Lorenzo Sonego (6).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-0.9 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.6-14.9 | 14.2-14.1 |
| Aces | 12.8 | 9.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 78.5% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 31.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.1 · Bet365 line 31.5 · -4.4
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexander Zverev 6 – 0 Lorenzo Sonego (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 6–0 Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/25 ATP Beijing | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/06/25 ATP Halle | 2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 19/06/24 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/12/23 United Cup | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 02/03/23 ATP Dubai | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/04/21 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 10/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 04/07 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Valentin Royer Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 71% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.