Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Thea Frodin vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Thea Frodin · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Thea Frodin
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 16.5
Recent form · 10 last
Thea Frodin
7-3 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thea Frodin 1533 · Elena Rybakina 1609
| Thea Frodin | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 5% | 95% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1533 vs 1609).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 42% break avg.
- Note: Thea Frodin makes many double faults (7.7/match).
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Thea Frodin | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.8 | 12.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 7.7 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 16.5 · +5.8
Over 16.5: 84% · 1.72
Under 16.5: 16% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thea Frodin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Anastasia Kulikova W75 Lexington |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Lea Nilsson W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Camilla Zanolini W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Olga Golas W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/05 | Eva Vedder W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/05 | Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/05 | Khrystyna Vozniak W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/04 | Akasha Urhobo W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Gabriela Lee W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/04 | Shilin Xu W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thea Frodin vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 80% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.