Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Kaitlin Quevedo · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Kaitlin Quevedo
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kaitlin Quevedo
5-5 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaitlin Quevedo 1521 · Elise Mertens 1564
| Kaitlin Quevedo | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elise Mertens (rating 1521 vs 1564).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Kaitlin Quevedo | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.3 | 11.5-9.8 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 58.4% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 44.5% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.5
Over 19.5: 67% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 33% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaitlin Quevedo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Ekaterina Ovcharenko WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Laura Samsonova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/07 | Carole Monnet WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Irene Burillo Escorihuela WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Irina Fetecau WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Irene Burillo Escorihuela WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaitlin Quevedo vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 71% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.