Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Anastasia Zakharova
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Anastasia Zakharova
Estimated games
20Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Anastasia Zakharova
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1572 · Anastasia Zakharova 1494
| Naomi Osaka | Anastasia Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1572 vs 1494).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 48.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Anastasia Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-8.9 | 10.1-8.7 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 58.9% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +0.5
Over 19.5: 54% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 46% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Anastasia Zakharova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Kylie Collins WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Hanne Vandewinkel W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Ayana Akli W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Fiona Crawley W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Tatiana Prozorova W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova?
Our model gives 75% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.